September 15, 2014 Housing Action Coalition
The Concord Group, a SFHAC member and land-use consulting and market analysis firm, recently released their latest installment of the “SF Bay Area Pipeline Report.” Key conclusion? The pipeline is GROWING across the whole Bay Area, with over 200,000 units at some stage in the planning or construction process, 43 percent of which will be built as rental apartments. It’s a similar story in San Francisco, where there are 64,000 units at some point in the pipeline, including large scale projects that will be built out over the coming decades.
The Concord Group’s data-heavy report highlights nearly 1,000 residential development projects across the Bay Area, categorizing deals by current planning status, affordable and market-rate unit count and rental/ownership likelihood. The report suggests there are more than 15,000 units already fully entitled or under construction in San Francisco alone, with another 30,000 units in some stage of the City’s planning process. What’s more, these figures don’t even include the additional 14,000 units in the City’s large-scale master plan projects like Treasure Island, Candlestick Point and the Schlage Lock Redevelopment, which seek to create entirely new neighborhoods in currently underutilized areas of the City. In total, the Concord Group estimates the City will deliver roughly 18,000 market-rate units over the next five years as developers race to capitalize on the enormous demand for new housing in San Francisco.
It’s clear from the statistics that rent growth has been the focus of developers working through the planning process over the last 36 months – 69 percent of San Francisco’s approved projects are slated to be rentals. However, the new data suggest flexibility is the game plan for the next round of projects: Currently only 15 percent of the projects currently undergoing entitlements are confirmed rental projects, 30 percent are planned for-sale, but more than half are undecided on tenure or are pursuing dual entitlements. As home prices continue their steady climb and the new-construction rental market looks increasingly saturated, the Concord Group sees the number of projects tracking dual entitlements continuing to grow as developers remain flexible in an effort to capture the greatest pool of new housing demand possible. Said Concord Group Principal Tim Cornwell, “While continuing to push, developers are definitely hedging their bets at this point in the cycle, knowing the intricacies of supply and demand are going to become increasingly important in the coming months.”
Anthony Blout is a Manager at The Concord Group.
Image Credit: Flickr user sirgious
